Article by Ian Kilbride, published on 28 May 2024. An important cleavage between current political party election manifestos is that of nationalisation, yet this critical issue is receiving little attention. This may be because the idea is so left field that other more immediate vote-winning issues crowd it out. But with the real prospect of a coalition government post-May 29, the economic planks of potential ANC coalition partners warrant serious consideration. Indeed, while the idea of nationalisation or renationalisation may be viewed as a socialist historical anachronism, even today, the British Labour Party is committed to renationalising rail services if it comes to power after 4 July this year. So, where do major political parties stand on nationalisation? Having ditched nationalisation as a core tenet of policy in the 1990s the ANCs 2024 manifesto sticks to the script. Land expropriation without compensation remains policy (rather than practice), but no other industry or sector is in line for nationalisation under a post May 29 ANC-led government. However, the state looms large in practically all aspects of life on every page of the 2024 ANC manifesto. Greater state intervention in health, education, banking, industry, infrastructure and public services are promised. The most […] The post Why Are We Not Taking Nationalization Seriously appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

An article by Ian Kilbride, published on 17 May 2024. Contrarianism is vital to progress. All great scientific, medical, engineering, cultural and humanitarian breakthroughs have been achieved by contrarians. Think of Galileo, Einstein, Marie Curie, Brunel, Da Vinci, Ghandi and Mandela. Indeed, to be contrarian is not simply being argumentative or to object to other’s positions. Rather, it often denotes a far more reasoned and considered position than being conformist and going with the flow. But to be contrarian requires some rather demanding qualities. The first is the possession of an inquisitive, flexible, and robust mind. This in turn, presupposes an intellectual curiosity. Contrarians are by nature curious people interested in the world around them. Not content with understanding it, they want to change it. Contrarians have the ability to weigh up and process often complex issues and debates and then to formulate their own position on what are often contentious matters. Contrarians generally look for evidence rather than opinion. They are fact gatherers and synthesisers. But the real faculty possessed by all contrarians is allowing the facts to speak to them directly and change their previously held positions. In this regard, contrarians eschew prejudice in favour of evidence, no […] The post Being A Contrarian appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

An article by Ian Kilbride, published on 15 May 2024. I write this while reflecting on that memorable autumn day in Pretoria on 10 May 1994 when Nelson Mandela held aloft the hand of his former oppressor F.W. De Klerk, on the steps of the Union Buildings amphitheatre. It was a moment of high drama that captured our hearts and imagination, but also captivated the world. Now a global statesman, rather than the world’s most famous political prisoner, the imposing, charismatic, redoubtable, pugilist that is Mandela, understood fully the enormous symbolic significance of his gesture. Holding the hand of the dour, conservative leader of the dying National Party, Mandela not only reassured his political adversary of his place in the body politic, but assuaged the fears of millions of others in South Africa. Of course, this was a moment in time and De Klerk would soon take his National Party out of the government of national unity and Madiba left government in 1999 after serving one term as President. It’s clear that Mandela and De Klerk enjoyed little personal chemistry, but were both political pragmatists who recognised the need for uncomfortable compromise as a foundation for stability, governance and even […] The post Thirty Years of Nation Building Through The Spirit Foundation appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

F R O M T H E C H A I R M A N ’ S D E S K How the year is flying and what an eventful first quarter it has been! 2024 was always going to be an eventful year of elections, economic flux and a challenginginvestment environment globally. But as I write this introduction, the defining feature playing out is that of heightened geo-political tensions, particularly in the Middle East. Concerns about a contagion effect and fall-out of the Israel- Hamas conflict are materialising, with global shipping being interdicted in the Red Sea and Iran launching an unprecedented missile attack on Israel, leaving global markets edgy. Regrettably, we are also likely to see an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war in the coming northernspring and summer months too. These global geo-political tensions are complicating an already perplexing pattern of persistently high inflation data, making the job of reserve bank governors an unenviable task. Forecasts of up to six rate cuts in major developed markets for 2024 now seem fanciful and we are now only likely to see some relief perhaps as late as the third quarter of the year. The task facing SA Reserve Bank Governor, […] The post The world is keeping us on our toes! appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

An article by Ian Kilbride, published on 29 April 2024. It is exactly thirty years since the world held its collective breath while witnessing the remarkable birth of democracy in South Africa in April 1994. The phalanx of newly enfranchised citizens patiently winding around polling stations was the most visual confirmation that we were on the brink of something quite remarkable in a country that had pulled back from the brink of internecine racial civil war. Celebratory images of Mandela, Tutu and De Klerk casting their ballots bore testament to the relief and anticipation shared with 40 million South African citizens as the rainbow nation emerged from the darkest days of apartheid. All three Nobel Laureates are now dead and so too is the vision of a rainbow nation that ultimately flattered to deceive. The intoxicating rush felt by the previously disadvantaged majority has now morphed for many into a toxic mixture of frustration, disappointment and disillusionment. The evidence is to be found in the current polling statistics forecasting that the governing African National Congress is set to lose its electoral majority in the May 29 general election. Moreover, the same polls point to a growth in support for the […] The post Thirty Years Into South African Democracy – Time For Another Government of National Unity? appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

Dear Warwick clients, supporters and friends, I have recently returned from a business trip to the UK and Channel Islands and wanted to share some of the insights I picked up when talking to asset managers, investors, regulatorsand friends with an interest in South Africa. First though, a few observations about the UK itself this year. The first and most obvious is the anticipation of elections. While a general election will be held by the end of the year and possibly as late as November, local government elections are scheduled for 2 May. The Conservative Party is expected to suffer a heavy defeat in both. The UK electorate appears to have had enough of 14 Years of Tory rule and there’s widespread dissatisfaction with the government’s performance, particularly during and after the Covid crisis. The much-vaunted benefits of Brexit have not materialised and were the referendum to be held today, the remainers would probably prevail. Of interest, however, there is also littleenthusiasm for a Sir Kier Starmer Labour Party government among those with whom I consulted. Indeed, some wags contend that the choice facing the UK electorate is akin to Trump versus Biden, but this is very wide of the […] The post A Letter From The Chairman’s Desk appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

An article by Ian Kilbride, published on 16 April 2024. Like Mission Impossible messages to Ethan Hunt (AKA Tom Cruise) this piece could self-destruct in a few weeks’ time once the 2024 national and provincial election results are declared. Like Mission Impossible, the outcome is uncertain, but we can sketch a number of plausible scenarios and as a business community prepare accordingly. At the time of writing (April 2024), we are being showered with a confetti box of election polls forecasting the African National Congress crashing below the 50% threshold to govern. To place this in context, just five short years ago, eyebrows were raised when some 2019 election polls forecast the ANC falling below 60% for the first time, despite the removal of Jacob Zuma from office and the ‘Ramaphoria’ sweeping the chattering classes. The 57,5 % achieved by the ANC in the 2019 national elections followed by the 45,5% garnered in the 2021 local government elections was the clearest signal that the ANC was in trouble. Not only did it have less than five years to turn things around, but in fact South Africa was undergoing a sea change in political support and voting behaviour. Demonstrably, the Ramaphosa-led […] The post Government of National Unity – The Best Election Outcome for Business appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

An article by Ian Kilbride, published on 8 April 2024. During the memorable 2023 rugby world cup, Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus infamously screamed at his team, “We’re the only f**king thing that works in South Africa!”. I found the world’s greatest rugby coach’s foul-mouthed rant at once jolting, jarring, hilarious, sobering and unintentionally thought provoking. I wrote before the 2023 rugby world cup that I believed the Springboks would retain the Webb Ellis trophy and provided reasons for my confidence. Admittedly I aged during the final minutes of the semi-final and finals, but my reasons for confidence were validated by the displays of sheer courage and determination that saw the Boks over the line. The Bok’s gutsy victory not only lifted the Webb Ellis trophy, but also that of the nation for weeks afterwards. But back to reality – is Rassie right and as a nation can we learn from this coaching genius and from the boys in green and gold? It is far too simplistic of course to believe that a nation’s problems can be solved by emulating a sports team, no matter how successful, but a few fundamental lessons can be taken on board and applied to our […] The post South Africa – Becoming A Winning Nation (Again) 30 Years Into Democracy appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

An article by Ian Kilbride, published on 3 April 2024 in Business Day. For the first time in human history, the majority of people now live in cities. By 2050 some 70% of the global population will be city dwellers and already 80% of global GDP is generated in cities. Amazingly, currently half of global economic output is generated from just one percent of the earth’s land mass. To place the economic scale of global cities into perspective, Paris has a larger economy than South Africa, the entire Canadian economy is smaller than Tokyo’s, London’s economy matches that of the Netherlands, the Los Angeles economy almost approximates that of Australia and the New York economy is larger than all but 20 nation states. Aggregating the world’s ten largest metros equates to the economies of Japan and Germany combined. Housing most of the world’s major centres of culture, education and innovation, cities are a vital space for the development and sustainability of humankind. But with scale and population density, comes problems. Cities produce over two thirds of the world’s energy, yet contribute to a similar quantum of greenhouse gas emissions. Rapid urbanization is placing unprecedented demands on infrastructure, which is exacerbated […] The post Cities Are Going International, But What’s The Benefit? appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

Article By Ian Kilbride, Published on 28 April 2024 by The Cape Times. The question is more than academic as the importance placed on business within a manifesto suggests much about how a party understands and views the economy and its ideological and policy orientation regarding the relationship between business, the state, labour and civil society. This ranges from a broadly sympathetic approach to business and its operating challenges, or conversely, accusations of its complicity in exploitation, corruption and malfeasance. The treatment of business within a manifesto is also suggestive of the respective party’s current and aspirational electoral constituency and even sources of funding. One simple measure of its importance to a party is the frequency with which the term “business” or “businesses” appears in a manifesto. Analysing the 2024 election manifestos of the parties representing more than 90% of the electorate, the results are illuminating. Of course, not all manifestos and measures are equal. Opposition parties enjoy the freedom to conflate electoral policies and promises with unrealisable wish lists. Given its 30-year track record in the government, the pledges made in the ANC 2024 election manifesto can be evaluated against its treatment of business over the past three decades. […] The post How does business feature in manifestos of the major political parties contesting May 29 election? appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

An Article By Ian Kilbride, Published on 28 March 2024 in The Daily Maverick. Regardless of the May 29 general election result, two issues are clear: economic growth will be the new government‘s primary challenge; secondly, given the abject failure of existing economic policies, new and innovative approaches are needed. A maverick, but not so radical proposal is for the establishment of a Ministry for Business and Economic Growth, together with the appointment of an appropriately experienced businessperson as its head. While novel, the idea is not unique. New Zealand, for example, has a Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment, which encompasses the areas of building and energy, employment, immigration and tourism, science and technology and plays a transversal role across government. Of course, the phenomenon of businesspeople entering politics is also nothing new. Cecil John Rhodes, Harry Oppenheimer, Zach De Beer, Herman Mashaba, Alan Winde and of course President Ramaphosa, have all excelled in business and politics. We also have the precedent of then President Mandela appointing SA Breweries Chairman, Meyer Khan, as Chief Executive Officer of the SA Police Service in 1997. But establishing a new Ministry headed by a business leader would be brave, innovative and provide […] The post The Case For A Minister Of Business And Economic Growth appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

An Article By Ian Kilbride Published on 13 March 2024. It is remarkable that an alleged private sex scandal is […] The post The F1 scandal is a corporate car crash  appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

An Article By Ian Kilbride, Published on 5 March 2024. Having learnt from the best in the UK and South Africa over many decades I have been inordinately lucky to be in the right place at the right time, allowing me to establish and build a portfolio of highly successful companies, foundations and brands. For this I shall be forever grateful. In the early 2000s, for example, the timing was right for me to launch an innovative and ground-breaking Web development company in a 50:50 joint venture with the world’s largest public relations company. Two of the overarching lessons I have learnt about establishing and running companies is when to switch style as the business grows or, in fact, to sell at the top when the time is right. My experience also led me to reflect on building the teams that sustain these entities and whether there is a common thread or threads that bind them? The first myth I had to dispel for myself was the belief or assumption that teams are teams are teams. In other words, that there is a magic formula to building a team that applies across the board irrespective of the company, purpose or […] The post Building Successful Teams appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

Proud’ is the word I would use to capture my reflections over the past six months. I am immensely proud […] The post From the desk of the Chairman and CEO appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

An Article By Ian Kilbride Published on 27 February 2024 in The Cape Times. The announcement by the Minister of […] The post The Good Company Dilemma appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

Our national cake is not growing fast enough. This was the top and bottom line of Minister Enoch Godongwana’s 2024 […] The post From The Chairman’s Desk Budget 2024 – In Need Of A Recipe To Grow The Cake appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

An Article By Ian Kilbride, Published on 20 February 2024. South African Airways (SAA), this year celebrates 90 years in […] The post SAA- The Truth appeared first on Warwick Wealth. The post SAA- The Truth appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

An Article By Ian Kilbride, Published on 2 February 2024 in Politicsweb. Is there a place for decency in politics? A broadly used, but ill-defined term, decency connotes living and behaving by a moral code in which the characteristics of respect, integrity, kindness, tolerance, reason and courage are central features. Decency is not bound by ideological or party political affiliation, nor by racial, ethnic or religious identity, rather it is about individual behaviour, character and demeanour. At a minimum, decency in the maelstrom of political contestation means respect for political opponents, tolerance of a diversity of viewpoints and avoiding the use of language that stokes conflict and enmity. Hate speech and lies are the mortal enemies of decency. To be sure, decency does not equate to supine political behaviour. After all, at root, all politics is about the acquisition, retention and distribution of power which is seldom achieved merely by good manners and sophistry. Rather, decency is about playing by the rules, operating within the letter and spirit of democratic good practice and the eschewing of violence be it verbal, threatened or physical. Yet, the current political landscape is largely devoid of decency and politics is the poorer for it. […] The post The Elusive Search For Decency In Politics appeared first on Ian Kilbride.