Kilbride Articles Archives

July 12, 2024

Published by Ian Kilbride on July 12, 2024

The 2024 UK Elections – A long Courtship and Short Honeymoon

An article by Ian Kilbride, published on 12 July 2024. I have the good fortune to have been in the UK for two transformative elections of the twenty first century. The first was in May 2010, which brought thirteen years of Labour Party rule to an end (though it required a Conservative Liberal Democrat coalition) and the even more transformative July 2024 election which swept Labour back into power under Sir Keir Starmer with an astonishing 412 seats, leaving it with a majority of 291 seats in the 650 seat Parliament. To place this in perspective, in 2019, Prime Minister Boris Johnson led the Conservatives to victory with 365 seats and an eighty-seat majority. Five years and three leaders later, the Tories sank to just 121 seats, the lowest number achieved by the western world’s most successful political party. It is widely accepted that Labour’s victory had as much to do with a groundswell of anti-Tory sentiment sweeping the country as much as it did with outright support for Keir Starmer’s changed Labour Party. Due to the peculiarities of the UK’s first past the post (FPTP) electoral system, the magnitude of Starmer’s victory is somewhat misleading. In terms of the […] The post The 2024 UK Elections – A long Courtship and Short Honeymoon appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

July 4, 2024

Published by Ian Kilbride on July 4, 2024

Be Afraid, Very Afraid

An article by Ian Kilbride, published on 4 July 2024. US presidential debates don’t win elections, but they can lose them. President Biden lost his on 27 June 2024. The greater loser was the American voting public who were presented with the choice of an old man versus a conman running their country for the next four years. Since their introduction in 1960, the US presidential election debates have provided some memorable images and one-liners. Richard Nixon’s sweaty upper lip and uncomfortable shifty eyes while debating the eloquent, dapper and TV savvy John F Kennedy. Film star turned politician Ronald Reagan making fun of his own age and his “there you go again” put down to the hapless Jimmy Carter. And of course, Trump’s threat to Hilary Clinton that, “You’d be in prison” if he were President. But the June 27 Biden-Trump ‘debate’ was on an altogether different scale. The great British political philosopher Thomas Hobbes characterised life as “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short”, for Biden the debate was all of these, though not short enough. In fact, it was 90 minutes too long. Through a combination of hubris and suicidal political bad judgment, Biden and his team initiated […] The post Be Afraid, Very Afraid appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

July 2, 2024

Published by Ian Kilbride on July 2, 2024

Everton & Spirit Foundation Join Forces

The Spirit Foundation has significantly increased its long-standing commitment to Everton in the Community and Everton Free School and Football College with a multi-year £2million funding partnership. The two new programmes of support will commence in July 2024 with the aim of creating a lasting impact for disadvantaged communities in Merseyside. The groundbreaking multi-year deal was confirmed recently when Spirit founder, philanthropist and Evertonian, Professor Ian Kilbride, attended one of Everton in the Community’s disability football sessions as well as visiting the Spirit Library at Everton Free School. The Spirit Foundation will now financially support the charity’s 14 disability teams and, in addition, will provide funding to Everton Free School to improve literacy levels, as well as supporting marginalised students in its Football College. A long-standing friend and supporter of both organisations, The Spirit Foundation was founded in 1994 and is a non-profit foundation established to give back and support education, communities and wildlife projects. A long-standing friend and supporter of both EitC and EFS organisations, the Spirit Foundation was founded in 1994 by the Kilbride family as a non-profit foundation to give back and support education, communities and wildlife projects. Currently celebrating its 30th anniversary, the Spirit Foundation has […] The post Everton & Spirit Foundation Join Forces appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

July 1, 2024

Published by Ian Kilbride on July 1, 2024

Hope For Better Policy Making

From The Government Of National Unity? An article published by Ian Kilbride on 1 July 2024. Buried within the small print of the Final – Final – Final GNU Statement of Intent is a short, bland, technical clause that commits the Government of National Unity to uphold the principle of evidence-based policy decision-making. Procedural, prosaic and barely noticeable, if applied to the letter, this clause is potentially the most revolutionary and meaningful for future governance in South Africa. While acknowledging the Constitution’s founding provisions, of equality, restorative justice, and the imperative of transformation, much government policy and decision-making has been shaped by ideology and captured by secular political interests, rather than informed by evidence. Of course, every government has an ideological bias and a self-interest to develop policy and make decisions favourable to its electoral constituency, but this need not be at variance with the best available evidence when formulating policy, or decision-making. While lacking any legal basis, clause 8.8 of the Statement of Intent binds all parties to the GNU to elevate evidence above ideology, or at the very least, ensuring that the facts are to be considered in policy and decision making. This is not a new principle […] The post Hope For Better Policy Making appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

June 26, 2024

Published by Ian Kilbride on June 26, 2024

The Government Of National Unity

Good For Business And Development. An article by Ian Kilbride, published on 26 June 2024 in IOL. The doomsday coalition scenario has not materialised, but is the nascent Government of National Unity (GNU) doomed? Corporate South Africa’s relief at President Ramaphosa’s announcement to form a Government of National Unity was palpable. Faced with the threat of anti-constitutional, nationalising and fissiparous forces, business welcomed the principle of a national unity government, but particularly one promising to be less arrogant, more balanced, accessible and accountable. The formative composition of the GNU, eschewed by the EFF and MK, in favour of a potentially more business friendly ANC/DA/IFP based government has already boosted confidence. Business is also encouraged by the GNU parties’ Statement of Intent’s commitment to include corporate South Africa in a ‘National Dialogue’ process leading to a social compact to achieve the objectives of the 2030 National Development Plan. Better late than never. Three of the eight fundamental principles guiding the Statement of Intent boost business confidence. The first is to uphold evidence-based policy and decision-making. Understandably, principles of social justice, equity and transformation have been the overarching drivers of much public policy in post-apartheid South Africa. Adherence to and support of […] The post The Government Of National Unity appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

June 25, 2024

Published by Ian Kilbride on June 25, 2024

Responsible Tourism Thirty Years Into South African Democracy

An article by Ian Kilbride, published on 25 June 2024. One of the few economic success stories of the post-apartheid era is tourism. The ending of apartheid thirty years ago was a key turning point for this sector as it literally opened the world to South Africa and South Africa to the world. Even the institutional legacies of apartheid, such as Robben Island, have become dark tourism attractions. Dark tourism is a recently recognised sub-sector that focuses on visitors wishing to experience destinations associated with tragic and poignant histories. As a key component of its ‘new’ economy, it is vitally important that South Africa not only maintains its recent tourism successes, but also grows this valuable sector sustainably. Herein lies the challenge. Success is relative too. South Africa is a middling 55th out of 119 countries ranked in the 2024 World Economic Forum Travel and Tourism Index, which is an improvement of seven places since 2019, but still below countries such as Kazakhstan, Thailand and Malaysia. Despite being a long-haul (over five to six hours flying time) destination from its principal tourist visitor market of Europe and North America, however, Mzansi remains the leading tourist destination in Sub-Saharan Africa. For […] The post Responsible Tourism Thirty Years Into South African Democracy appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

June 20, 2024

Published by Ian Kilbride on June 20, 2024

A Place For Art In Business

An article by Ian Kilbride, published on 20 June 2024. On the 75th anniversary of the publication of Eric Blair’s (AKA George Orwell) most famous novel, 1984, I was led to consider whether business has a responsibility to support the arts, even when the art being produced is disruptive, critical, perhaps even counter-cultural, not to mention anti-capitalist? ‘Responsibility’ may be taking it too far, as once this term is used and adopted all sorts of external strictures, obligations, comparative measurements and even sanctions come into play that simply take away the enjoyment. But I do think that support of the arts by business is vital, irrespective of how uncomfortable the ‘product’ may be. There are three persuasive reasons for arguing this. The first is personal. I simply love art, yet it is only through my relative business success that I have been able to build a collection of local art in particular. To date, the most famous artist in my collection is of course a local talent by the name of Nelson Mandela. Madiba’s simple, minimalist, yet powerful depictions portray an unbreakable human spirit and creativity despite being conceived from the most appalling circumstances. Would I like to own a […] The post A Place For Art In Business appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

June 3, 2024

Published by Ian Kilbride on June 3, 2024

SA Elections 2024 – The People Have Spoken

But What Did They Say? An article by Ian Kilbride, published on 3 June 2024. “Shock, shock horror horror, shock shock horror”, is a memorable line in the brilliant song ‘Female of the Species’, by Liverpool band Space. It’s a line many in the ANC could be mouthing right now. Apart from Jacob Zuma’s supporters and the brilliant local pollsters who predicted the outcome, the rest of South Africa is aghast at the poor electoral showing of the ANC, matched by the astounding Provincial success of the Umkhonto we Sizwe party. Before analysing the results in more detail, let’s take a step back and look at the conduct of the 2024 election, which was actually a resounding success for our maturing democracy. This is true in two key respects: Firstly, by any measure, the 2024 election was free, fair and despite the many objections of small party losers, legitimate. Campaigns were free of violence and largely devoid of intimidation. Even the previously dominant ANC adhered to IEC and court rulings that allowed its own former President to commit party patricide in KZN. Secondly, the ANC’s acceptance of ‘defeat’ through the ballot box is unusual for any liberation movement, particularly in […] The post SA Elections 2024 – The People Have Spoken appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

May 28, 2024

Published by Ian Kilbride on May 28, 2024

Taking The Pulse Of Our Democracy

An article by Ian Kilbride, published on 28 May 2024. As South Africa heads into arguably the most important election since 1994, it is a good time to take the pulse of our democracy. In my view, our democracy is in rude health, but we must remain vigilant and guard against those who seek to undermine it for personal or political gain. Given its long history of apartheid and racial exclusion, South Africa was in many respects an unlikely candidate for surviving as a democracy. Persistent poverty, joblessness and inequality have all conspired to undermine democracy in other countries and led to uprisings, revolutions, coups or dictatorships. Yet, even as the world’s most unequal country and with the highest unemployment rate of any advanced economy, South African democracy remains robust and arguably stronger than ever. Evidence for this is to be found in the proliferation of new political parties, the emergence of independent candidates, the crumbling of one-party rule, the independence of the Independent Electoral Commission and the recent groundbreaking ruling of the Constitutional Court barring Jacob Zuma from election to Parliament. Significantly too, the days of slavish media coverage and support of the majority party are long over. The […] The post Taking The Pulse Of Our Democracy appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

May 28, 2024

Published by Ian Kilbride on May 28, 2024

Why Are We Not Taking Nationalization Seriously

Article by Ian Kilbride, published on 28 May 2024. An important cleavage between current political party election manifestos is that of nationalisation, yet this critical issue is receiving little attention. This may be because the idea is so left field that other more immediate vote-winning issues crowd it out. But with the real prospect of a coalition government post-May 29, the economic planks of potential ANC coalition partners warrant serious consideration. Indeed, while the idea of nationalisation or renationalisation may be viewed as a socialist historical anachronism, even today, the British Labour Party is committed to renationalising rail services if it comes to power after 4 July this year. So, where do major political parties stand on nationalisation? Having ditched nationalisation as a core tenet of policy in the 1990s the ANCs 2024 manifesto sticks to the script. Land expropriation without compensation remains policy (rather than practice), but no other industry or sector is in line for nationalisation under a post May 29 ANC-led government. However, the state looms large in practically all aspects of life on every page of the 2024 ANC manifesto. Greater state intervention in health, education, banking, industry, infrastructure and public services are promised. The most […] The post Why Are We Not Taking Nationalization Seriously appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

May 17, 2024

Published by Ian Kilbride on May 17, 2024

Being A Contrarian

An article by Ian Kilbride, published on 17 May 2024. Contrarianism is vital to progress. All great scientific, medical, engineering, cultural and humanitarian breakthroughs have been achieved by contrarians. Think of Galileo, Einstein, Marie Curie, Brunel, Da Vinci, Ghandi and Mandela. Indeed, to be contrarian is not simply being argumentative or to object to other’s positions. Rather, it often denotes a far more reasoned and considered position than being conformist and going with the flow. But to be contrarian requires some rather demanding qualities. The first is the possession of an inquisitive, flexible, and robust mind. This in turn, presupposes an intellectual curiosity. Contrarians are by nature curious people interested in the world around them. Not content with understanding it, they want to change it. Contrarians have the ability to weigh up and process often complex issues and debates and then to formulate their own position on what are often contentious matters. Contrarians generally look for evidence rather than opinion. They are fact gatherers and synthesisers. But the real faculty possessed by all contrarians is allowing the facts to speak to them directly and change their previously held positions. In this regard, contrarians eschew prejudice in favour of evidence, no […] The post Being A Contrarian appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

May 15, 2024

Published by Ian Kilbride on May 15, 2024

Thirty Years of Nation Building Through The Spirit Foundation

An article by Ian Kilbride, published on 15 May 2024. I write this while reflecting on that memorable autumn day in Pretoria on 10 May 1994 when Nelson Mandela held aloft the hand of his former oppressor F.W. De Klerk, on the steps of the Union Buildings amphitheatre. It was a moment of high drama that captured our hearts and imagination, but also captivated the world. Now a global statesman, rather than the world’s most famous political prisoner, the imposing, charismatic, redoubtable, pugilist that is Mandela, understood fully the enormous symbolic significance of his gesture. Holding the hand of the dour, conservative leader of the dying National Party, Mandela not only reassured his political adversary of his place in the body politic, but assuaged the fears of millions of others in South Africa. Of course, this was a moment in time and De Klerk would soon take his National Party out of the government of national unity and Madiba left government in 1999 after serving one term as President. It’s clear that Mandela and De Klerk enjoyed little personal chemistry, but were both political pragmatists who recognised the need for uncomfortable compromise as a foundation for stability, governance and even […] The post Thirty Years of Nation Building Through The Spirit Foundation appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

April 30, 2024

Published by Ian Kilbride on April 30, 2024

The world is keeping us on our toes!

F R O M T H E C H A I R M A N ’ S D E S K How the year is flying and what an eventful first quarter it has been! 2024 was always going to be an eventful year of elections, economic flux and a challenginginvestment environment globally. But as I write this introduction, the defining feature playing out is that of heightened geo-political tensions, particularly in the Middle East. Concerns about a contagion effect and fall-out of the Israel- Hamas conflict are materialising, with global shipping being interdicted in the Red Sea and Iran launching an unprecedented missile attack on Israel, leaving global markets edgy. Regrettably, we are also likely to see an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war in the coming northernspring and summer months too. These global geo-political tensions are complicating an already perplexing pattern of persistently high inflation data, making the job of reserve bank governors an unenviable task. Forecasts of up to six rate cuts in major developed markets for 2024 now seem fanciful and we are now only likely to see some relief perhaps as late as the third quarter of the year. The task facing SA Reserve Bank Governor, […] The post The world is keeping us on our toes! appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

April 30, 2024

Published by Ian Kilbride on April 30, 2024

Thirty Years Into South African Democracy – Time For Another Government of National Unity?

An article by Ian Kilbride, published on 29 April 2024. It is exactly thirty years since the world held its collective breath while witnessing the remarkable birth of democracy in South Africa in April 1994. The phalanx of newly enfranchised citizens patiently winding around polling stations was the most visual confirmation that we were on the brink of something quite remarkable in a country that had pulled back from the brink of internecine racial civil war. Celebratory images of Mandela, Tutu and De Klerk casting their ballots bore testament to the relief and anticipation shared with 40 million South African citizens as the rainbow nation emerged from the darkest days of apartheid. All three Nobel Laureates are now dead and so too is the vision of a rainbow nation that ultimately flattered to deceive. The intoxicating rush felt by the previously disadvantaged majority has now morphed for many into a toxic mixture of frustration, disappointment and disillusionment. The evidence is to be found in the current polling statistics forecasting that the governing African National Congress is set to lose its electoral majority in the May 29 general election. Moreover, the same polls point to a growth in support for the […] The post Thirty Years Into South African Democracy – Time For Another Government of National Unity? appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

April 25, 2024

Published by Ian Kilbride on April 25, 2024

A Letter From The Chairman’s Desk

Dear Warwick clients, supporters and friends, I have recently returned from a business trip to the UK and Channel Islands and wanted to share some of the insights I picked up when talking to asset managers, investors, regulatorsand friends with an interest in South Africa. First though, a few observations about the UK itself this year. The first and most obvious is the anticipation of elections. While a general election will be held by the end of the year and possibly as late as November, local government elections are scheduled for 2 May. The Conservative Party is expected to suffer a heavy defeat in both. The UK electorate appears to have had enough of 14 Years of Tory rule and there’s widespread dissatisfaction with the government’s performance, particularly during and after the Covid crisis. The much-vaunted benefits of Brexit have not materialised and were the referendum to be held today, the remainers would probably prevail. Of interest, however, there is also littleenthusiasm for a Sir Kier Starmer Labour Party government among those with whom I consulted. Indeed, some wags contend that the choice facing the UK electorate is akin to Trump versus Biden, but this is very wide of the […] The post A Letter From The Chairman’s Desk appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

April 16, 2024

Published by Ian Kilbride on April 16, 2024

Government of National Unity – The Best Election Outcome for Business

An article by Ian Kilbride, published on 16 April 2024. Like Mission Impossible messages to Ethan Hunt (AKA Tom Cruise) this piece could self-destruct in a few weeks’ time once the 2024 national and provincial election results are declared. Like Mission Impossible, the outcome is uncertain, but we can sketch a number of plausible scenarios and as a business community prepare accordingly. At the time of writing (April 2024), we are being showered with a confetti box of election polls forecasting the African National Congress crashing below the 50% threshold to govern. To place this in context, just five short years ago, eyebrows were raised when some 2019 election polls forecast the ANC falling below 60% for the first time, despite the removal of Jacob Zuma from office and the ‘Ramaphoria’ sweeping the chattering classes. The 57,5 % achieved by the ANC in the 2019 national elections followed by the 45,5% garnered in the 2021 local government elections was the clearest signal that the ANC was in trouble. Not only did it have less than five years to turn things around, but in fact South Africa was undergoing a sea change in political support and voting behaviour. Demonstrably, the Ramaphosa-led […] The post Government of National Unity – The Best Election Outcome for Business appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

April 8, 2024

Published by Ian Kilbride on April 8, 2024

South Africa – Becoming A Winning Nation (Again) 30 Years Into Democracy

An article by Ian Kilbride, published on 8 April 2024. During the memorable 2023 rugby world cup, Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus infamously screamed at his team, “We’re the only f**king thing that works in South Africa!”. I found the world’s greatest rugby coach’s foul-mouthed rant at once jolting, jarring, hilarious, sobering and unintentionally thought provoking. I wrote before the 2023 rugby world cup that I believed the Springboks would retain the Webb Ellis trophy and provided reasons for my confidence. Admittedly I aged during the final minutes of the semi-final and finals, but my reasons for confidence were validated by the displays of sheer courage and determination that saw the Boks over the line. The Bok’s gutsy victory not only lifted the Webb Ellis trophy, but also that of the nation for weeks afterwards. But back to reality – is Rassie right and as a nation can we learn from this coaching genius and from the boys in green and gold? It is far too simplistic of course to believe that a nation’s problems can be solved by emulating a sports team, no matter how successful, but a few fundamental lessons can be taken on board and applied to our […] The post South Africa – Becoming A Winning Nation (Again) 30 Years Into Democracy appeared first on Ian Kilbride.

April 5, 2024

Published by Ian Kilbride on April 5, 2024

Cities Are Going International, But What’s The Benefit?

An article by Ian Kilbride, published on 3 April 2024 in Business Day. For the first time in human history, the majority of people now live in cities. By 2050 some 70% of the global population will be city dwellers and already 80% of global GDP is generated in cities. Amazingly, currently half of global economic output is generated from just one percent of the earth’s land mass. To place the economic scale of global cities into perspective, Paris has a larger economy than South Africa, the entire Canadian economy is smaller than Tokyo’s, London’s economy matches that of the Netherlands, the Los Angeles economy almost approximates that of Australia and the New York economy is larger than all but 20 nation states. Aggregating the world’s ten largest metros equates to the economies of Japan and Germany combined. Housing most of the world’s major centres of culture, education and innovation, cities are a vital space for the development and sustainability of humankind. But with scale and population density, comes problems. Cities produce over two thirds of the world’s energy, yet contribute to a similar quantum of greenhouse gas emissions. Rapid urbanization is placing unprecedented demands on infrastructure, which is exacerbated […] The post Cities Are Going International, But What’s The Benefit? appeared first on Ian Kilbride.